This story was commissioned by Euromaidan Press. Since Substack pays only around a fifth of my bills, I have no choice but to take on a lot of freelance work. I still want my Substack audience to know where to read those freelance stories, however. Hence this excerpt.
Ukraine’s southeastern counteroffensive has rolled back Russian advances at the intersections of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts. The Ukrainian attacks set back, by months if not years, the Russian plan for marching on Zaporizhzhia City from the northeast.
But there’s a shorter path for the Russians: the southern approach through the town of Orikhiv, around 50 km from Zaporizhzhia City. And the Russians may not need to travel all of it. The stated Russian objective on this axis, according to the Institute for the Study of War, is to advance within tube artillery range of Zaporizhzhia City—which means getting to within 20 or 30 km of a regional capital, not capturing it. That is what Russian forces did to Kharkiv.
The route is short but hard. And for three years, it has been blocked at its first obstacle by the ruins of a prison.
The first obstacle for the Russians is the village of Mala Tokmachka. In particular, the thickly built ruins of a former prison, which function as an interlocking series of bunkers for the Ukrainian 118th Mechanized Brigade. The second obstacle is Orikhiv itself, which sits astride all the passable roads leading to Zaporizhzhia City.
The Russian Defense Ministry announced the capture of Mala Tokmachka on Nov. 16. Ukrainian government sources still had the village under Ukrainian control in April. Russian milblogger Boris Rozhin’s repeated claims that the village was nearly cleared became, in Meduza’s account, the most popular Russian military meme of the first half of 2026—shorthand for the distance between what the Russian army announces and what it holds.
Observer Thorkill has watched closely as Russian forces have probed for weaknesses in Ukrainian defenses between the disputed gray zone and Zaporizhzhia City—and found very few.
The Russian army’s 270th Motor Rifle Regiment, which is part of the 42nd Motor Rifle Division, has been trying to advance through Mala Tokmachka “for many months,” Thorkill noted. But the Russian attacks “have always faltered against the strongly fortified strongpoint in the complex of ruins of the former prison buildings.”
If the Russians can’t capture Orikhiv, they can’t get their artillery within range of Zaporizhzhia City. But they can’t capture Orikhiv if they don’t first capture Mala Tokmachka. And they can’t take Mala Tokmachka if they don’t overrun the old prison.
Read the rest at Euromaidan Press.
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There's probably a good reason for this but I have no military training. Why doesn't Ukraine turn the hundreds of drones they are sending into Russia towards the specific areas the Russian Army is making advances to blunt the offensive? I would think 1 or 2 nights of concentrating the drone wave to this area would do wonders.